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The MSPO 2025 commercial report shows a market pivoting around three forces: (1) Poland’s localisation drive and PGZ ecosystem expansion, (2) intense foreign OEM competition coupled with technology transfer offers, and (3) an operational pull from Ukraine that prioritises UAS/C-UAS and long-range fires. The feed of 26 May–9 September 2025 headlines reveals concrete moves—local rocket production, USV entries, AEW\&C pitches, new munitions, and industrial MoUs—that will shape Poland’s 2026–2028 procurement slate.

Key Facts

  • Localisation: WB Group to locally produce Homar-K CGR-080 rockets; WB also enters the USV market [1][2].
  • Fires: KNDS outlined an artillery-shell plan for Poland; Saab unveiled new ammunition for Chunmoo; Poland reportedly explores a Tomahawk-style cruise missile [4][14][13].
  • Airpower: Boeing paired Ghost Bat CCA with its F-15EX bid; Northrop Grumman + Saab pitched AEW\&C [5][6].
  • UAS/C-UAS: Ukraine unveiled an updated Palyanitsya drone missile; Kara Dag iterated its Obriy personal drone detector; Ukraine–Taiwan drone cooperation expanded [7][8][9].
  • Industry breadth: Volvo Defense showed a broad support portfolio; Hanwha highlighted new howitzers [15][10].
  • Polish ecosystem: WZL-2 signed a Northrop MoU to strengthen the E-2D pitch; dual-use technologies featured prominently [11][3].

1) Market Overview: Demand Signals & Industrial Posture

Poland’s posture is industrial. Articles point to a deliberate shift from platform “shopping” to capacity-building and assured throughput. WB’s local rocket production for Homar-K CGR-080 and its USV market entry are emblematic of Warsaw’s dual priority: strike depth and maritime autonomy [1][2]. Complementary coverage of dual-use technologies underscores resilience, civil–mil spillovers, and a scale mindset [3].

Ukraine’s operational gravity is tangible. The show floor contained combat-validated requirements and solutions—from Palyanitsya updates to drone detection kits [7][8]. The Ukraine–Taiwan industrial link on drones signals widening supply-chain options for sensors, airframes, and electronics [9].

OEM competition is structured around localisation. Whether AEW\&C, CCA, or MLRS ammo, propositions are bundled with workshare and time-to-field commitments: Boeing + Ghost Bat CCA for F-15EX; Northrop + Saab for AEW\&C; Saab for Chunmoo ammunition; Northrop + WZL-2 on the E-2D industrial case [5][6][4][11].

2) Capability Cluster Deep Dives

A) UAS & C-UAS

  • Effectors: Updated Palyanitsya drone missile (Ukraine) provides a higher-end attritable option for precision strikes [7].
  • Protection: Obriy personal drone detector iterations indicate maturing C-UAS kits designed for squads, critical sites, and convoy protection [8].
  • Industrial breadth: Ukraine–Taiwan cooperation suggests diversified supply for small-UAS avionics and airframes [9].

Commercial implications: Expect framework buys favouring modular stacks (sensing–C2–effectors) with swap-in components and exportable sub-assemblies. Vendors offering open architectures and fieldable training packages will have an edge.

B) Long-Range Fires & Ammunition

  • Rocket lines: WB’s Homar-K localisation is a reload and throughput story as much as it is a launcher story [1].
  • Artillery ammo: KNDS France tabled a plan to meet Poland’s shell-production goals [14].
  • New munitions: Saab introduced Chunmoo-compatible ammunition; Hanwha showcased new howitzers [4][10].
  • Future reach: A report on a Tomahawk-style cruise missile indicates a conceptual path toward indigenous strike beyond MLRS ranges [13].

Commercial implications: RFPs will increasingly evaluate cycle times, stockage, and transportability. Co-production MOUs that convert to dated lot schedules and unit-cost brackets will win.

C) Air Domain: AEW\&C & Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA)

  • Bids: Northrop + Saab pitched AEW\&C; Boeing paired Ghost Bat CCA with F-15EX [6][5].
  • Industrial anchors: WZL-2–Northrop MoU tightens the E-2D sustainment narrative inside Poland [11].

Commercial implications: Procurement pathways will hinge on interoperability, crew training, and mission-system openness—not only airframes. CCA proposals must show credible CONOPS with Poland’s fighter roadmap.

D) Maritime & Mobility

  • USVs: WB’s move into surface warfare USVs (and an additional Stormrider USV reveal) extends autonomy to the Baltic and littoral mission set [2][16].
  • Ground logistics: Volvo Defense’s portfolio signals an appetite for fleet renewal and life-cycle support at scale [15].

3) Vendor-by-Vendor: What We Learned from MSPO Headlines

  • WB Group (Poland): Local Homar-K rocket production; USV portfolio entry; ongoing award traction—core to sovereignty narratives [1][2].
  • PGZ (Poland): The feed includes day-by-day highlights and collaboration items; expect expanded offset and supplier-development schemes (multiple PGZ items across sources).
  • Saab (Sweden): Chunmoo ammo line and AEW\&C teaming; separate GLSDB container-launcher MoU with Hanwha signposts layered fires options [4][6][12].
  • Hanwha (Korea): Howitzers on display and Poland-centered MLRS ecosystem participation [10].
  • Boeing (US): CCA-enabled F-15EX pitch designed to “future-proof” the fighter buy [5].
  • Northrop Grumman (US): AEW\&C with Saab; E-2D sustainment vector via WZL-2 [6][11].
  • KNDS (France): Artillery-shell capacity proposition [14].
  • Volvo Defense (Sweden): Mobility and support coverage [15].
  • Ukrainian industry: Palyanitsya update; drone detector and Taiwan cooperation point to scalable UAS/C-UAS stacks [7][8][9].

4) Commercial Outlook (2025–2026)

Near-term competitions & conversions

  • Fires: Expect ammo contracts and rocket-line milestones to convert first (throughput KPIs, local content ratios).
  • Air domain: An AEW\&C down-select and CCA pathfinding could crystallise as Poland sequences fighter recapitalisation.
  • UAS/C-UAS: Framework awards for detect-track-defeat kits; emphasis on training + sustainment.

What wins:

  • Documented localisation with dated deliverables; open architectures; exportable sub-system offers; robust ILS and training.
  • Interoperability with NATO C2 and rapid fielding credible within 12–24 months.

Risks & watch-items:

  • Supply-chain heat in energetics and fuzes; ITAR and third-country content constraints; integration of multi-vendor mission systems.
  • Cost growth if localisation outpaces tooling/workforce absorption.

Further Reading (Internal)

References

  1. Janes — MSPO 2025: Poland’s WB Group to locally produce Homar-K CGR-080 rockets (9 Sep 2025) — Link
  2. Janes — MSPO 2025: Poland’s WB Group enters surface warfare market with USVs (9 Sep 2025) — Link
  3. The Korea Times — Poland showcases dual-use technologies at MSPO 2025 (8 Sep 2025) — Link
  4. MILMAG — MSPO 2025: New Saab Ammunition for Chunmoo (6 Sep 2025) — Link
  5. Janes — MSPO 2025: Boeing adds Ghost Bat CCA to F-15EX bid for Poland (5 Sep 2025) — Link
  6. Janes — MSPO 2025: Northrop Grumman, Saab pitch AEW\&C solutions to Poland (5 Sep 2025) — Link
  7. Janes — MSPO 2025: Ukraine unveils updated Palyanitsya drone missile (9 Sep 2025) — Link
  8. Euro-sd — MSPO 2025: Kara Dag continues to enhance Obriy personal drone detector (6 Sep 2025) — Link
  9. Мілітарний — Industrial Associations From Ukraine and Taiwan Agree on Drone Industry Cooperation (6 Sep 2025) — Link
  10. MILMAG — MSPO 2025: Hanwha Aerospace Showcases New Howitzers (5 Sep 2025) — Link
  11. Euro-sd — MSPO 2025: Northrop Grumman signs MoU with WZL-2 to strengthen E-2D pitch (5 Sep 2025) — Link
  12. Euro-sd — MSPO 2025: Saab signs GLSDB MoU with Hanwha Aerospace (4 Sep 2025) — Link
  13. Defence Blog — Poland develops Tomahawk-style cruise missile (2 Sep 2025) — Link
  14. Euro-sd — MSPO 2025: KNDS France outlines plan to fulfil Poland’s artillery shell production goal (1 Sep 2025) — Link
  15. Defence Industry Europe — Volvo Defense showcases broad product offer at MSPO 2025 (1 Sep 2025) — Link
  16. Breaking Defense — At MSPO, Poland’s WB Group rolls out new Stormrider USV, built in response to Ukraine (3 Sep 2025) — Link
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