Defence Agenda Evening Brief — 04 October 2025

Compiled (TRT): 04 October 2025, 11:00 (Europe/Istanbul)

Executive Summary

Signals from the past seven days orbit three themes: (1) autonomy matures—the U.S. Navy’s autonomous USV launch & recovery trials and BAE’s Forterra autonomous AMPV push the envelope from demos to workflows; (2) network transition—Link 16’s long glidepath toward optical backbones fuels migration and interoperability planning; (3) industrial & diplomatic posture—HÜRJET–Spain optics, IAC 2026 outreach at IAC Sydney, and DE-CIX’s Space-IX point to how aerospace, space networking, and defence diplomacy are converging. Rafael’s C-UAS updates remain in focus for cost-exchange debates. All dates are absolute in Europe/Istanbul; unknown metrics remain TBC.

Latest Items

Naval USV autonomous launch & recovery advances
Autonomous cradle/haul-in concept aims to de-risk small-boat ops and scale distributed autonomy at sea. 26 September 2025
Link 16 migration debate: toward optical backbones
Growing optical constellations revive timelines for gradual Link 16 drawdown and gateway bridging—no hard cutoff implied. 26 September 2025
Spain’s Air Force chief flies HÜRJET
Symbolic formation underscored Spain–Türkiye ties in advanced jet training; procurement implications TBC. 26 September 2025
IAC 2026 outreach at IAC 2025 (Sydney)
Türkiye Pavilion engagements build runway to Antalya 2026; roster and milestones integrated into briefing. 25 September 2025
DE-CIX Space-IX: orbital Internet Exchange concept
Interconnection model extends beyond Earth to link satellites with terrestrial IXs; throughput/latency metrics TBC. 02 October 2025
Rafael updates counter-UAS portfolio
Layered C-UAS concepts positioned for cost-exchange advantage; specific range/kill metrics remain vendor-stated (TBC). 02 October 2025
BAE Systems Forterra autonomous AMPV
Autonomy kit targets logistics/CASEVAC roles; integration timelines with legacy fleets under review. 01 October 2025
Beyond the classical tank: paradigm shift thesis
Working theory compares EMBT, KF51U, Leopard 2 A-RC 3.0, CR3, M10 Booker, Abrams M1A3 and China’s next-gen concept. 03 October 2025
Maritime wisdom & strategy: curated reading lane
From Thucydides to Mahan and Corbett—why modern naval officers still mine classical theory for today’s dilemmas. 03 October 2025
SAHA MBA Gathering — 10 October at ODTÜ
Community meet-up to align talent and industry needs; agenda and VIP confirmations evolving (TBC). 01 October 2025

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Gaps & Risks

Metrics restraint: For Space-IX and Rafael C-UAS, avoid unstated throughput, range or kill-probability figures; label vendor claims as such.
Interoperability drift: Link 16 coverage must emphasise bridges and gradualism to avoid misinterpretation of near-term deprecation.
Autonomy envelopes: USV/AMPV autonomy performance is sea-state/terrain dependent; thresholds remain TBC without test cards.
Concept vs. capability: “Tank-of-the-future” is a working theory; separate editorial analysis from programme fact sheets.
Event logistics: SAHA MBA participant list and protocol details are evolving; publish only confirmed names, mark the rest TBC.

Next 7 Days Plan (Owner: Muzaffer Ünsaldı)

04–05 Oct: Finalise Space-IX explainer; add internal links to satellite comms coverage; include schematic image with alt text.
05 Oct: Publish Rafael C-UAS update; frame cost-exchange and layered defence with clear TBC on vendor metrics.
06 Oct: Forterra AMPV autonomy brief; clarify mission sets (LOG/CASEVAC) and retro-fit considerations.
06–07 Oct: Link 16 migration piece—map optical backbone pathways and gateway bridging; avoid “switch-off” language.
07 Oct: Tank-paradigm analysis (working theory) with explicit caveats; include programme comparison table.
08 Oct: HÜRJET–Spain note—confirm official phrasing and exact sortie timestamp; imagery rights check.
09 Oct: SAHA MBA Gathering logistics post—final timings, venue details, and RSVP CTA.
Rolling: Maintain IAC 2026 outreach tracker; add Sydney follow-ups and partner touchpoints.